By: Brad
Ski Guru - Skis.com
The Farmers Almanac is the longest running, and considered by many the most accurate, long range weather forecasting publication produced in North America. The Almanac was first published in 1818 in Morristown, New Jersey and provides a series of weather predictions that are often times made more than two years in advance. Each annual Farmers Almanac includes 16 months of weather forecasts and is broken down into 12 independent forecast zones. For convenience purposes, we will only summarize the regions that contain ski areas.
Zone 1 – Northeast: New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine
Zone 13 – Rocky Mountain: Idaho, Western Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, and Utah
Zone 15 – Northwest: Oregon and Washington
Zone 16 – Pacific Southwest: California
Zone 1 – Northeast
The month of January will be a bit warmer than normal. The average temperature should hover around 23 degrees, which is 3 degrees above normal. Precipitation is forecasted at 3”.
The slightly above average temperature in the Northeast will lead to reduced snowfall for the region. The beginning of the month will see some snow through the 3rd of the month, as well as between the 6th and the 9th. Towards the end of the month Farmer’s is predicting snow showers around the 25th that will continue off and on through the end of the month.
February will also bring warmer than average temperatures to the region and precipitation 1” below average. For the most part the weather will be very mild with snowfall between the 6th and 10th. Mild rain showers are expected around the 13th. The rest of February will see warm and sunny weather with some snowfall around the 27th.
Unlike February, March is forecasted to be colder than average in the region. The average temperature is predicted to be 29.5 degrees, 3.5 degrees below average with above average precipitation (3.5”). The beginning of the month will see a solid snowstorm lasting until the 5th or 6th. The 7th-12th will see snow showers followed by sunny weather. The snow will switch to rain around the 18th – 22nd, with more rain towards the end of the month.
Zone 13 – Rocky Mountain Region
Winter in this region will be much colder than normal, with above average snowfall in the north, and moderate to reduced levels of precipitation in the south.
January will see lower than average temperatures as well as below average precipitation. Not the best combination for ski season, but snow is forecasted for the beginning of the year through the 5th of January. Between the 8th and the 13th the Northern Rockies will see snow followed by rain and snow showers through the 24th. The end of the month will see periods of rain with snow in the mountains and cold weather throughout the period.
February will be very cold for the intermountain region. The predicted average temperature of 28 degrees is 5 degrees below normal, and very little precipitation is expected. Snow is forecasted between the 4th and 9th with another round of snow coming towards the end of the month, 22nd-28th of February.
March will bring spring and much higher temperatures. Average high temperatures will be near 37 degrees, 5 degrees above average. The warm weather will also bring increased precipitation of 1.8”, .3” above normal. The snow forecast for March is as follows: 1st-8th, rain and snow showers, 12th-18th snowy periods with cold weather. The end of the month will bring periods of rain and snow to the region. Snow in the mountains and rain at the lower elevations, cooler weather will be present throughout.
Zone 15 – Pacific Northwest
The Northwest will experience an average winter with temperatures a half degree above normal. Precipitation will be above average in the north and below average in the south. Farmer’s is predicting heaviest snowfall in the middle of January.
January will bring above average temperatures to the Northwest, with 9” of rainfall (3” above average). Due to the overwhelming amount of rain in the Northwest, rain will fall steadily throughout the month. The 12-16th will bring very heavy rain to the region, which will correlate to very intense snowfall. The Northwest normally records some of the largest snowfalls in America and this January will not disappoint.
February’s average temperature will be ½ degree below normal and, unfortunately, February is expected to receive only 2.5” inches of precipitation, 2.5” below average. The 1st through 4th of the month will see some small showers and cool weather followed by seasonal rain from the 5th through the 10th. The middle of February, the 10th through 17th will be sunny and cool. Towards the end of the month there will be off and on showers with intermittent sunny skies.
March’s weather will be very similar to February, 1 degree below average (46 degrees) with ½ the normal rainfall (2”). The 1st through 5th of the month will be cold and rainy and the 6th through 12th will have steady seasonal showers with average temperatures. The rest of the month will follow a similar weather pattern; after all it is the Northwest.
Zone 16 – Pacific Southwest
The Southwest has been subject to a drought over the past 5-10 year and this winter it appears will continue the trend. The winter average temperatures will be slightly below average with below average precipitation. The stormiest periods will be in mid-January, late February, and mid-March, hopefully these isolated storms will bring enough snow to Lake Tahoe and Mammoth Mountain.
January weather will be moderate with only 2” of rain expected. From the 10th through the 16th a strong storm is expected to move over the area and snowfall should be expected in the Sierra Nevada’s. The rest of the month will host seasonal temperatures with scattered showers and sunshine.
February will also be slightly colder than normal month for the Pacific Southwest and once again precipitation will be lower than normal, only 1” is expected. The 8th through the 16th will see scattered showers then sunny and cool weather until the 21st when a strong system is expected to bring thunderstorms to the area giving way to sunshine by the 27th. The month will end with more seasonal showers.
March in the Pacific Southwest will also be colder than normal with average temperatures expected to be 2 degrees lower than the average of 57 degrees. Like the rest of winter, March will bring below average precipitation and sunny weather. It is expected to rain between the 3rd and the 7th, with some rain around the 14th. The 23rd to the 25th will see some showers then sun, and the month will close with some light showers.